“Obviously I was unexpectedly elected four years ago,” Brayne says to one voter, while pressing a red how-to-vote card into their hands.
“I’ve used my position, rebuilt the schools, including Rosebud Primary School, new express bus to Frankston, let’s keep the momentum going.”
Brayne argues that the peninsula had long been ignored by Spring Street before his surprise win and that making the seat marginal had helped attract funding in areas such as education and transport.
“I think it’d be a huge shame for us to just revert back to the previous status quo, where we are taken for granted,” he says.
It’s a message that resonates with voters like Madi Waters, an education worker who is backing Labor: “I think the Liberals just forgot about us,” she says.
The Liberals are not taking any chances in their bid to win back Nepean, wheeling out a celebrity candidate in the form of Groth, who has also made a name as a sports commentator.
With every vote crucial, simple name recognition could be decisive.
While Brayne stands at the polling booth in a campaign T-shirt with his face on the front, Groth opts for a Ralph Lauren button-up shirt.
Originally from Albury, Groth moved to Rye with his wife and twin boys a few years ago. Liberal leader Matthew Guy has made several trips from Melbourne to give Groth’s campaign a boost.
He describes the transition from tennis player – he rose to number 53 in the world at one point – to politician as “very different”.
“People want to see rejuvenation, revitalization. They want to see new faces and people as part of the Liberal Party,” he says.
“This will be an electorate where you get a feel of what’s happening across the state, whether those people who left the Liberal Party in 2018 are coming back.”
Groth agrees with his opponent that that area has been underfunded in health and transport, but says the reason for that is because Labor has been in government for 19 of the past 23 years.
The Liberals’ local promises include spending $340 million on the redevelopment of Rosebud Hospital and $175 million for an overpass of the Mornington Peninsula Freeway at Jetty Road.
“People are sick of funding going up the road to Frankston Hospital; nowhere else in metropolitan Melbourne do you have to travel 50 kilometers to get public health care. The roads are terrible,” says Groth.
While many Victorians have ranked the COVID-19 pandemic down the list of priorities at this election well behind health, the environment and corruption, the issue has a different cut-through on the Mornington Peninsula.
The area was controversially included in the lockdowns of metropolitan Melbourne, despite relatively low case numbers, prompting calls to be designated as regional.
A regular comparison made by candidates and voters is that the Mornington Peninsula was locked down and under curfew in 2020 and 2021 while Geelong, across the other side of Port Phillip Bay, was open.
“I think they felt neglected here,” says Groth. “They would have appreciated a local member who could have stood up for their local constituents and not just for the interests of his own party during that time.”
Brayne says there were several reasons while the lockdown was necessary, including the high rates of second-home ownership by people in Melbourne and the peninsula’s older population.
“If COVID had gotten out of control, then it could have been devastating,” he says.
While they aren’t considered much of a chance of winning the seat, there are also several independents running in Nepean who may play a role with preferences.
Charelle Ainslie, a businesswoman and former national softball player, is running as a “real not teal” independent and says that many voters are upset with the major parties.
She was once involved with the anti-lockdown group Reignite Democracy Australia but has since cut ties.
“I do think there’s a very strong anti-Dan sentiment and that will come through,” she says.
That’s something Liberal voter John Parkes, a retired consumer affairs officer, agrees with: “I’ve got nothing against the local member, but I just cannot face the prospect of another four years of Dan Andrews leading the state.”
Another independent candidate, Elizabeth Woolcock, had planned to run for Liberal preselection but was standing on her own on a platform of protecting the area’s green wedge status.
“I’m not against growth, so much, we just need to do it with ecology in mind,” she says. Both independents are preferring Groth.
The people of Nepean appear eager to make their voice heard. The Victorian Electoral Commission reported that the seat has the highest number of combined postal vote applications and early votes so far.
John Harris is normally a swing voter but he says he is avoiding both of the major parties to vote independent at this election.
“I don’t trust Daniel Andrews, I don’t know much about Guy, if he’d be much better,” he says.
The Morning Edition newsletter is our guide to the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up here.